2.1.2.a Demographics

Population

Table 2.1A- Source: US Census, City of Surprise- Community Development

Over the last decade the city of Surprise has experienced a substantial increase in population. The population increased from 30,848 residents in 2000 to 107,593 in March of 2008. The growth rate of Surprise consistently outpaces that of Maricopa County. While the city is not expected to sustain this rapid growth rate, it is anticipated to approach nearly 400,000 people by the year 2030. This dynamic presents challenges in providing public services and infrastructure to a rapidly expanding population.

Table 2.1B - Source: City of Surprise- Community Development

Households

Along with robust population growth, Surprise is expected to experience continued annual growth in households for several years. It is anticipated that households in Surprise will increase 16 percent between 2000 and 2010. The long-term level of households is projected to reach 179,081 by 2030. The city of Surprise’s household growth rate far outpaces the annualized growth rate of Maricopa County, which will result in Surprise possessing a larger proportion of households in Maricopa County than its present level. Over the same time period, the average household size in Surprise is projected to increase from 2.0 to 2.5. The increase in household size can be attributed to the influx of families moving into Surprise, which is diminishing the dominance of retirement communities. 

Table 2.1C - Source:  MAG, May 2007

Race and Ethnicity

The racial and ethnic make up of Surprise has changed considerably over the last 15 years. The White population increased 27 percent and “Some Other Race” declined 33 percent. During this same timeframe the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity declined by 35 percent. 

Table 2.1D - Source:  US Census 1990, 2000, American Community Survey 2006

Age

The city of Surprise has experienced changes within the age distribution of its residents since 1990, which provides challenges to city planners in keeping up with the development of schools and parks. The overall percentage of the 65 and over age cohort has declined, while the “less than 19” and “25 to 34” years of age cohorts have increased. However, the 55 and older age cohort still maintains a high percentage of the overall Surprise population, providing an opportunity to expand the healthcare and life sciences employment sectors. 

Likewise, the median age for the city of Surprise has undergone dramatic changes since 1990. The median age rose from 33.0 to 46.1 between 1990 and 2000 as retirement communities located in Surprise. However, between 2000 and 2006 there was an influx of  people 19 to 34 years of age moving to Surprise, which reduced the median age to 36 years. This compares more closely to Maricopa County overall, as the county median has slowly risen from 32.0 to 33.6 between 1990 and 2005. Overall, Surprise now possesses a more balanced age distribution in the population, and an opportunity to expand the employment base.
 

Figure 2.1A - Source: US Census 1990, 2000, American Community Survey 2006

Workforce and Unemployment

The Surprise labor force  has experienced modest growth between the years 2000 and 2005. Both Surprise and Maricopa County account for a 2.5 percent average annual growth rate in the gross level of the labor force. Over the last five years the city’s unemployment rate has increased slightly, which tracks closely with the overall unemployment rate in Maricopa County.
 

Table 2.1E- Source:  DES 2005

Table 2.1F - Source:  DES 2005

Employment

The business establishments and employment for Surprise are very concentrated in the construction and retail trade sectors. While the two sectors show moderate shares of the business establishments, their employment percentages are disproportionately higher than the level of establishments in the community. These two sectors account for 42.4 percent of all employment in Surprise, while accounting for 29.6 percent of all business establishments. Comparatively these two sectors account for 19.7 percent of employment and 23.1 percent of business establishments in Maricopa County. The occupational mix within the city of Surprise shows similarities to that of Maricopa County. Occupations that have the largest representation in Surprise include Sales and Office Occupations, Management, Professional and Related Occupations, and Service Occupations. The combined total of these occupational groupings represents 78 percent of all Surprise occupations, which is the same as for Maricopa County.

Table 2.1G - Source:  US Census, American Community Survey 2006

Table 2.1H - Source:  US Census, American Community Survey 2006

Table 2.1I - Source:  MAG Projections 2007

Employment Mix at Build-out

Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) provides an analysis of employment within the city of Surprise based on Socio-economic Analysis Zones (SAZ). Their data indicates a decline in the number of jobs associated with the retail sector from 55.1 percent in 2004 to 21.6 percent at build-out. Alternatively, the city is expected to experience a 27.1 percent increase in office jobs from 12.6 percent to 39.7 percent, and a nearly 20 percent increase in industrial jobs from 11 percent to 30.7 percent.

Household Income

Since 1990, the median household income for Surprise residents has more than doubled, rising to nearly $60,190 per household in 2006. This income is almost 7.5 percent higher than the Maricopa County median household income of $52,521.

Roughly 43.3 percent of households earned between $50,000 and $100,000 in 2006. The largest proportion of Surprise households (24.6 percent) earned between $50,000 and $75,000 in 2006. Conversely, in Maricopa County as a whole, only 33.3 percent of its residents made between $50,000 and $100,000. However, the largest proportion of its households (18.7 percent) fell into a higher income bracket – $75,000 to $100,000 – in 2006.

Figure 2.1C - Source: US Census, 2006 American Community Survey

Only 15 percent of households in Surprise earned an income under that of the national poverty line in 2006. More than 15 percent of households in Maricopa County, as a whole, fell below the poverty line in that same year.

Figure 2.1D - Source: US Census, 2006 American Community Survey

Table 2.1J - Source:  US Census, American Community Survey 2006

Education Attainment

The level of educational attainment that the Surprise population exhibits is very similar to that of Maricopa County. In 2006, 26.5 percent of the population had a high school diploma and 64 percent had earned an Associates Degree or higher. While Surprise exhibits a higher rate of high school graduates than Maricopa County, they also exhibit lower levels of individuals possessing a bachelor’s degree or higher. This dynamic suggests the availability of a qualified labor force to support expanding manufacturing and industrial sectors. While bio-tech and other industries remain employment targets, a higher level of graduate or professional degrees would assist in attracting these specific industries.