3.2.2.b Trends in Transit Use Discussion

According to the National Transit Database (NTD), transit ridership increased by 10 per cent from 1985 to 2005. During the same period, federal assistance applied to transit increased by nearly 105 percent. The trends also indicate a steady increase in the vehicle revenue miles nationwide. United States mass transit ridership began to surge with the increasing gas prices and has continued to rise steadily ever since. A number of cities with some form of mass transit have reported substantial increases in ridership as the cost of driving a car has increased by 25 to 30 per cent.

According to Census 2006, Surprise has a population of 103,402, total households of 37,319, and a median household income of $60,198. The mean travel time to work was 34.1 minutes. According to MAG studies, Surprise is projected to have a population of approximately 401,458 people and 179,081 households by 2030. In addition to having additional jobs, the majority of this growth will be experienced in designated centers as shown by the Surprise growth map.  These growth areas are expected to grow with high employment density as well as high overall residential density. According to the United States Census, more than 75 per cent of Surprise workers used a car, truck, or van to commute to their jobs. Public transportation as a mode of commute amounted to less than one percent. Surprise has seen a slight increase in transit ridership in the past year. Valley Metro reported about 1,655 boardings for Surprise in November 2007. This accounted for only about 0.12 per cent of Valley Metro’s total ridership.

The projected increase in population for Surprise will provide transit with the opportunity to expand into new and growing markets, thereby extending its ridership base. To meet the continued needs and demands generated by development, it will become necessary for the transit system to expand and modify its existing routes. Continued effective and efficient management of the transit system will ensure that revenues received, along with federal and state assistance, will allow the transit system to fully utilize its resources. As environmental and capacity issues become paramount, transit’s role will increase. Effective use of transit can make a significant difference in the level of congestion in certain corridors.